Amazon Forecast is a fully managed service that uses machine learning to deliver
highly accurate forecasts.
Companies today use everything from simple spreadsheets to complex financial
planning software to attempt to accurately
forecast future business outcomes such as product demand, resource needs, or
financial performance. These tools build
forecasts by looking at a historical series of data, which is called time series
data. For example, such tools may try
to predict the future sales of a raincoat by looking only at its previous sales data
with the underlying assumption that
the future is determined by the past. This approach can struggle to produce accurate
forecasts for large sets of data
that have irregular trends. Also, it fails to easily combine data series that change
over time (such as price,
discounts, web traffic, and number of employees) with relevant independent variables
like product features and store
locations.
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BENIFITS
50% more accurate forecasts with machine learning Amazon Forecast
provides forecasts that are up to 50% more accurate by using machine learning to
automatically discover
how time series data and other variables like product features and store locations
affect each other. You are better
able to understand how these complex relationships ultimately affect demand than what
looking at time series data alone
can deliver. The models that Amazon Forecast builds are unique to your data, which means
the predictions are custom fit
to your business. To ensure that your models continue to deliver accurate results over
time, Amazon Forecast makes it
easy to schedule your models to be updated as new data becomes available.
Create virtually any time series forecast Multiple types of time
series forecasts are required to run your business, from cash flow to product demand to
resource
planning. Amazon Forecast allows you to build forecasts for virtually every industry and
use case, including retail,
logistics, finance, advertising performance, and many more. Using machine learning,
Amazon Forecast can work with any
historical time series data and use a large library of built-in algorithms to determine
the best fit for your particular
forecast type automatically.
Secure your business data and peace of mind Every interaction you
have with Amazon Forecast is protected by encryption. Any content processed by Amazon
Forecast is
encrypted with customer keys through Amazon Key Management Service, and encrypted at
rest in the AWS Region where you
are using the service. Administrators can also control access to Amazon Forecast through
an AWS Identity and Access
Management (IAM) permissions policy – ensuring that sensitive information is kept secure
and confidential.
Reduce forecasting time from months to hours With Amazon Forecast,
you can achieve forecasting accuracy levels that used to take months of engineering in
as little
as a few hours. You can import time series data and associated data into Amazon Forecast
from your Amazon S3 database.
From there, Amazon Forecast automatically loads your data, inspects it, and identifies
the key attributes needed for
forecasting. Amazon Forecast then trains and optimizes your custom model, and hosts them
in a highly available
environment where it can be used to generate your business forecasts. By automatically
handling the complex machine
learning required to build, train, tune, and deploy a forecasting model, Amazon Forecast
enables you to create accurate
forecasts quickly.
Use cases
Product Demand Planning
You can use Amazon Forecast to forecast the appropriate inventory
levels for your various store locations. You provide
Forecast information like historical sales, pricing, store promotions, store locations,
and catalog data from your
retail management systems in a CSV (comma-separated values) format into Amazon S3
storage. You can then combine that
with associated data like website traffic logs, weather, and shipping schedules. Amazon
Forecast will use that
information to produce a model that can accurately forecast customer demand for products
at the individual store level.
Export your forecasts in batch in CSV format and import them back into your retail
management systems so that you can
determine how much inventory to purchase and allocate per store.
Financial planning
Accurate financial forecasting like sales revenue predictions is
fundamental to every business’ success. Amazon Forecast
can forecast key financial metrics such as revenue, expenses, and cash flow across
multiple time periods and monetary
units. You first upload your historical financial time series data to Amazon S3 storage
and then import it to Amazon
Forecast. After producing a model, Amazon Forecast will provide you with the expected
accuracy of the forecast so that
you can determine if more data is required before using the model in production. The
service can also visualize
forecasts with graphs in the Amazon Forecast Console to help you make informed
decisions.
Resource planning
Planning for the right level of available resources, such as staffing
levels, advertising inventory, and raw material
for manufacturing is important to maximize revenue and control costs. For example, a
broadcasting company may want to
optimize ad inventory regionally. It can import historical viewership data across
different program categories and
geographic regions, content metadata, and regional demographics into Amazon Forecast.
The service will learn from this
data and provide accurate local forecasts. Given that entertainment programming changes
frequently, scheduled retraining
of the models will ensure that the models evolve with local preferences.
How it works
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